goalence

🏴 English League Two · Final

Notts County vs Salford City

May 25, 02:00 PM · Wembley Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Salford City Away Win

36%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Notts County35%
Draw29%
Salford City36%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)39%
Under 2.5 (0-2)61%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes45%
BTTS: No55%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

12.3%

1-2

7.7%

0-2

7.1%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Notts County vs Salford CitySalford City Away Win: 36%. λ (Home): 1.09 · λ (Away): 1.15.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.