🇮🇹 Serie A · Regular Season - 38
AC Milan vs Cagliari
May 24, 06:45 PM · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
AC Milan Home Win
58%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
AC Milan58%
Draw27%
Cagliari15%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)33%
Under 2.5 (0-2)67%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes33%
BTTS: No67%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
19.2%
2-0
13.9%
2-1
8.0%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
AC Milan vs Cagliari — AC Milan Home Win: 58%. λ (Home): 1.45 · λ (Away): 0.57.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.