🇮🇹 Serie A · Regular Season - 38
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
May 22, 06:45 PM · Stadio Artemio Franchi
○ Normal PREDICTION
Atalanta Away Win
47%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Fiorentina27%
Draw26%
Atalanta47%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)48%
Under 2.5 (0-2)52%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes51%
BTTS: No49%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.2%
0-2
8.5%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta — Atalanta Away Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.08 · λ (Away): 1.50.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.