🇮🇹 Serie A
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma
May 24, 06:45 PM
Full Time
0 – 2
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma
Our prediction: AS Roma Away Win ✓ Correct
Drama Profile
How both teams have handled pressure across the season.
Historical pattern, informational only.
SOLID PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
AS Roma Away Win
66%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
0-1
15.3%
0-2
14.1%
1-2
9.1%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives AS Roma a clear edge against Hellas Verona in Serie A — 66% confidence (SOLID tier) with an expected scoreline of 0-1.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 60% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma — AS Roma Away Win: 66%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.