🇮🇹 Serie A · Regular Season - 38
Lecce vs Genoa
May 24, 06:45 PM · Stadio Via del Mare
○ Normal PREDICTION
Genoa Away Win
48%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Lecce20%
Draw32%
Genoa48%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)24%
Under 2.5 (0-2)76%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes30%
BTTS: No70%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
20.2%
0-2
11.1%
1-2
6.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Lecce vs Genoa — Genoa Away Win: 48%. λ (Home): 0.60 · λ (Away): 1.10.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.