goalence

🇮🇹 Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Lecce vs Genoa

May 24, 06:45 PM · Stadio Via del Mare

Normal PREDICTION

Genoa Away Win

48%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Lecce20%
Draw32%
Genoa48%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)24%
Under 2.5 (0-2)76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes30%
BTTS: No70%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

20.2%

0-2

11.1%

1-2

6.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Lecce vs GenoaGenoa Away Win: 48%. λ (Home): 0.60 · λ (Away): 1.10.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.